HUGE NEWS! We are Moving into a Year Where We're going to see a Revaluation in Gold - Andrew Maguire
HUGE NEWS! We are Moving into a Year Where We're going to see a Revaluation in Gold - Andrew Maguire
Andrew Maguire, Executive Director & Group General Counsel at Kinesis Money, believes that a gold revaluation is on the horizon in the upcoming year. This conviction is intricately linked to the ongoing de-dollarization process, where the US dollar's appeal is on the decline. Federal Reserve will be compelled to revalue gold, aligning with the consensus among first-tier liquidity providers. This suggests this recalibration will likely occur no later than the physically driven 2024 marketplace. Data from the International Monetary Fund highlights that the US dollar accounted for 59.17% of global allocated foreign exchange reserves in the third quarter of 2023, showcasing a decline of approximately 6% since early 2016.
Geopolitical considerations, including the looming potential for war, Andrew Maguire anticipates a surge in physical demand within the gold market, reflecting the global investor sentiment seeking refuge amid geopolitical uncertainties.
Central banks played a pivotal role in the gold market last year, purchasing 1,037 tons, just 45 tons short of the 2022 record. The World Gold Council predicts that central bank demand will return to average pre-record levels of around 500 tons in 2024. Juan Carlos Artigas, Head of Research at the WGC, emphasizes the untapped potential within the central bank community, with foreign reserves still saturated with gold, especially among emerging markets.
Maguire contends that current gold prices are unjustified, arguing against the viability of the synthetic side of the trade. He posits that robust demand and commercial entities holding onto their gold reserves will inevitably force a market adjustment, suggesting an impending upward shift in gold prices. The LBMA survey reveals analysts' divided opinions on the primary drivers for gold prices in the coming year. While 25% anticipate US monetary policy as the most significant factor, an equal 22% ties in between expectations for central bank demand and geopolitical risks driving gold prices.
In discussions about the silver market, Andrew Maguire highlights a notable surge in physical demand for silver from Indian wholesalers. He notes that these entities are sourcing silver from various channels, including reputable refiners in Switzerland and Germany.
In a recent report published by The Silver Institute, it has been projected that despite facing various challenges, global silver demand is set to reach an impressive 1.2 billion ounces in 2024. This projection would mark the second-highest level on record. The Institute anticipates robust growth in India within the jewelry sector, driving a 6% increase in jewelry consumption for the year.
Maguire expresses surprise at the current silver-to-gold ratio 90:1, labeling it a synthetic trade. He highlights the impact of dollarization on silver, emphasizing that as gold's value rises, the artificial nature of the ratio becomes unsustainable. Maguire raises a crucial question about silver's fate during a gold revaluation, hinting at potential upheavals in the existing synthetic trade dynamics.
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📖 CHAPTERS:
00:00 Intro
00:36 Gold Revaluation
7:22 Silver Demand
8:00 Gold Silver Ratio
8:46 Gold & Silver Market
12:51 Outro
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