Over the Brink: Escalation Management in a Protracted U.S.-PRC Conflict
The Department of Defense’s 2023 annual report on Chinese military power highlights that China’s current nuclear modernization efforts “dwarf previous attempts in both scale and complexity.” Though the direction of China’s nuclear modernization is the subject of continued debate, its qualitative and quantitative expansion is unquestionably increasing the range of coercive options available to China's leadership in a conflict.
A forthcoming CNAS report, Over the Brink: Escalation Management in a Protracted War, finds that there is a plausible logic to PRC coercive nuclear use under protracted war conditions and that the United States must do more to prepare for this potential future. Building on previous CNAS research, Andrew Metrick, Phil Sheers, and Dr. Stacie Pettyjohn argue that the United States must undertake a significant re-examination of its conventional-nuclear integration efforts and develop new operational concepts for theater nuclear deterrence in the Indo-Pacific.
Please join the Center for a New American Security on Thursday, August 8, from 1:00–2:00 p.m. ET for a live conversation with senior nuclear policy experts. The discussion will focus on the distinct features of nuclear deterrence in the Indo-Pacific, the vulnerabilities the United States might face to Chinese nuclear coercion, and the opportunities available to bolster deterrence.
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