Trump versus Harris: Who will win the US 2024 presidential election?

Published: 09 October 2024
on channel: Université de Lausanne

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Who will likely win on Tuesday 5 November 2024⁩?

Ten years ago, John Antonakis, at HEC Lausanne of the University of Lausanne in Switzerland, and Philippe Jacquart at Emlyon France, developed a model to predict the U.S. presidential election outcome (see https://doi.org/10.5465/amj.2012.0831).

Since then, they have tweaked the model, which uses macroeconomic data and incumbency, as well as the charisma difference of the two candidates; this updated model uses data from 1916 to predict the electoral college outcome. Over the last 27 elections, the model calls the winner correctly 25 times (92.59% accuracy). See this video to understand how the model works and who will likely win the 2024 U.S. presidential eletion.

Watch video Trump versus Harris: Who will win the US 2024 presidential election? online, duration hours minute second in high quality that is uploaded to the channel Université de Lausanne 09 October 2024. Share the link to the video on social media so that your subscribers and friends will also watch this video. This video clip has been viewed 94,565 times and liked it 868 visitors.

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